Sales could peak at around 18.2 million units in 2017, up from 16.5 million vehicles delivered last year, according to predictions outlined by IHS Automotive analysts.
The industry is currently benefiting from low interest rates, relatively cheap fuel and sustained job growth. In the next few years, however, interest rates will likely grow and emissions technology could increase vehicle costs. Some analysts have also warned of waning economic growth.
“Automakers will add a lot of content to be in compliance,” said IHS Automotive managing director Michael Robinet, as quoted by Bloomberg. “They may even shoot for being over-compliant. That extra cost will put vehicle affordability under pressure.”
Many buyers have been opting for longer loans in recent years, boosting near-term sales but potentially stalling longer-term growth. The percentage of loans with payoff periods between 73 and 84 months has more than doubled from 2010 to 2014.
Despite the forecasted plateau in US sales, IHS suggests automakers can still look to China and other emerging markets to sustain global growth past 2020.
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