The cartel’s latest World Oil Outlook report (PDF) predicts that demand for crude oil will increase by 18 million barrels per day to 110 million barrels by 2040, according to excerpts highlighted by The Telegraph.
The forecast acknowledges an expected increase in the number of alternative-fuel vehicles, with particularly strong growth for mild hybrids. Diesel vehicle numbers are also slated to grow.
Despite the rise of hybrids, OPEC believes gasoline will remain dominant well into the future — powering 94 percent of all vehicles in 2040 if the prediction proves accurate.
The report does show an increase in plug-in hybrids and battery EVs, however the authors suggest traditional gasoline and diesel vehicles will continue to climb at an even faster pace. Collectively, the oil exporting countries are anticipating 2.1 billion cars across the globe by 2040, representing more than double the current estimate.
“Without a technology breakthrough, battery electric vehicles are not expected to gain significant market share in the foreseeable future,” the authors note.
Battery prices are expected to continue a downward slide, making long-range EVs more affordable in the coming years. Tesla Motors’ Model 3, Chevrolet’s Bolt and other upcoming segment peers will be relying on the trend to continue, providing buyers with several options for 200+ mile electric vehicles in the $35,000-$40,000 range by 2017.
Higher gasoline prices tend to encourage buyers to consider EVs and hybrid vehicles. Oil is relatively cheap in the current market, hovering around $30-$40 per barrel — not far above the 10-year low recorded in 2008 — but OPEC hopes to more than double the price by 2020 and hit nearly $100 per barrel by 2040.
Prices of both oil and batteries have been difficult to precisely predict, leaving some uncertainty surrounding the OPEC forecast.
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